serval:BIB_A6F20A4D9B2E
Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: a logical approach fro interpreting the evidence
10.1016/j.scijus.2011.12.004
Gallidabino
M.
author
Weyermann
C.
author
Romolo
F.
author
Taroni
F.
author
article
2013-03
Science & Justice
1355-0306
1355-0306
journal
53
1
41-48
Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.
forensic science, firearms, solid phase microextraction, gunshot residue, dating, time since discharge, interpretation, likelihood ratio
eng
60_published
peer-reviewed
University of Lausanne
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