Incident heart failure prediction in the elderly: the health ABC heart failure score.

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State: Public
Version: Author's accepted manuscript
Serval ID
serval:BIB_FD933C873590
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Incident heart failure prediction in the elderly: the health ABC heart failure score.
Journal
Circulation. Heart Failure
Author(s)
Butler J., Kalogeropoulos A., Georgiopoulou V., Belue R., Rodondi N., Garcia M., Bauer D.C., Satterfield S., Smith A.L., Vaccarino V., Newman A.B., Harris T.B., Wilson P.W., Kritchevsky S.B.
Working group(s)
Health ABC Study
ISSN
1941-3297 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1941-3289
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
1
Number
2
Pages
125-133
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Comparative Study ; Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite the rising heart failure (HF) incidence and aging United States population, there are no validated prediction models for incident HF in the elderly. We sought to develop a new prediction model for 5-year risk of incident HF among older persons.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Proportional hazards models were used to assess independent predictors of incident HF, defined as hospitalization for new-onset HF, in 2935 elderly participants without baseline HF enrolled in the Health ABC study (age, 73.6 +/- 2.9 years, 47.9% males, 58.6% whites). A prediction equation was developed and internally validated by bootstrapping, allowing the development of a 5-year risk score. Incident HF developed in 258 (8.8%) participants during 6.5 +/- 1.8 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of incident HF included age, history of coronary disease and smoking, baseline systolic blood pressure and heart rate, serum glucose, creatinine, and albumin levels, and left ventricular hypertrophy. The Health ABC HF model had a c-statistic of 0.73 in the derivation dataset, 0.72 by internal validation (optimism-corrected), and good calibration (goodness-of-fit 2 6.24, P=0.621). A simple point score was created to predict incident HF risk into 4 risk groups corresponding to <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk. The actual 5-year incident HF rates in these groups were 2.9%, 5.7%, 13.3%, and 36.8%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The Health ABC HF prediction model uses common clinical variables to predict incident HF risk in the elderly, an approach that may be used to target and treat high-risk individuals.
Keywords
Age Factors, Aged, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Health Status, Heart Failure/epidemiology, Humans, Incidence, Male, Models, Statistical, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Survival Rate/trends, Time Factors, United States/epidemiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
26/10/2016 16:04
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:28
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