Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

Détails

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Etat: Public
Version: de l'auteur⸱e
ID Serval
serval:BIB_E5C1AE6D9B34
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.
Périodique
International Journal of Cardiology
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Marques-Vidal P., Rodondi N., Bochud M., Chiolero A., Pécoud A., Hayoz D., Paccaud F., Mooser V., Firmann M., Waeber G., Vollenweider P.
ISSN
1874-1754[electronic]
ISSN-L
0167-5273
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2009
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
133
Numéro
3
Pages
346-353
Langue
anglais
Résumé
OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.
Mots-clé
Adult , Aged , Calibration , Coronary Disease/diagnosis* , Coronary Disease/epidemiology* , Coronary Disease/mortality , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Population Groups , Predictive Value of Tests , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Switzerland/epidemiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
10/03/2009 8:49
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 17:09
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