Towards a macro model of National Health Service waiting lists

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_DD891B47A2B9
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Towards a macro model of National Health Service waiting lists
Périodique
System Dynamics Review,
Auteur⸱e⸱s
van Ackere A., Smith P.C.
ISSN
0883-7066
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
1999
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
15
Numéro
3
Pages
225-252
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Waiting lists for elective surgery have been endemic to the UK National Health Service since its inception in 1948. The lists arise as a result of interaction between supply factors (the provision of resources and the efficiency of their use) and demand factors (arising from a complex conjunction of the perceptions and preferences of patients and physicians). This article takes the first steps towards the development of a macro model of the NHS waiting list. It adopts an economics perspective and assumes that the waiting time for surgery, as perceived by patients, physicians and managers, is a central influence on the quantity of elective surgery demanded and supplied. Using the methods of system dynamics, econometric results are integrated into a dynamic model that seeks to illustrate the path taken over time by the national system of elective surgery. It explores a number of future scenarios, and finds that the NHS will quickly cease to be a universal service if resources fail to keep pace with increases in demand.
Web of science
Création de la notice
02/06/2009 13:56
Dernière modification de la notice
21/08/2019 5:13
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