An extreme value approach for modeling Operational Risk losses depending on covariates

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_D212C3A04FBD
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
An extreme value approach for modeling Operational Risk losses depending on covariates
Périodique
Journal of Risk and Insurance
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Chavez-Demoulin V., Embrechts P., Hofert M.
ISSN
0022-4367
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
09/2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
83
Numéro
3
Pages
735-776
Langue
anglais
Résumé
A general methodology for modeling loss data depending on covariates is developed. The parameters of the frequency and severity distributions of the losses may depend on covariates. The loss frequency over time is modeled with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate function depending on the covariates. This corresponds to a generalized additive model, which can be estimated with spline smoothing via penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The loss severity over time is modeled with a nonstationary generalized Pareto distribution (alternatively, a generalized extreme value distribution) depending on the covariates. Since spline smoothing cannot directly be applied in this case, an efficient algorithm based on orthogonal parameters is suggested. The methodology is applied both to simulated loss data and a database of operational risk losses collected from public media. Estimates, including confidence intervals, for risk measures such as Value-at-Risk as required by the Basel II/III framework are computed. Furthermore, an implementation of the statistical methodology in R is provided.
Mots-clé
Operational risk, Value-at-Risk, extreme value theory, covariates, spline smoothing, penalized maximum likelihood
Web of science
Création de la notice
12/08/2014 13:47
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 16:52
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