Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an Alpine environment

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_CD9B4579AAF7
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an Alpine environment
Périodique
Journal of Vegetation Science
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Guisan A., Theurillat J. P., Kienast F.
ISSN
1100-9233
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
1998
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
9
Numéro
1
Pages
65-74
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The relationships between the distribution of alpine species and selected environmental variables are investigated by using two types of generalized linear models (GLMs) in a limited study area in the Valais region (Switzerland). The empirical relationships are used in a predictive sense to mimic the potential abundances of alpine species over a regular grid. Here, we present the results for the alpine sedge Carer curvula ssp. curvula. The modelling approach consists of (I) a binomial GLM, including only the mean annual temperature as explanatory variable, which is adjusted to species presence/absence data in the entire study area; (2) a logistic model restricted to stands occurring within the a priori defined temperature range for the species - which allows ordinal abundance data to be adjusted; (3) the two species-response functions combined in a GIS to generate a map of the species' potential abundance in the study area; (4) model predictions filtered by the classes of the qualitative variables under which the species never occur.
Such a stratified approach used to better fit the variability within the optimal altitudinal zone for the species. Removing stand descriptions from altitudes too high or too low, where the species is unlikely to occur, enhances the global modelling performance by allowing the identification of important environmental variables only retained in the second model.
The model evaluation is finally carried out with the gamma-measure of association in an ordinal contingency table. It shows that abundance is satisfactorily predicted for C. curvula.
Mots-clé
Carex curvula ssp. curvula, four-step model, generalised linear model, geographic information system, ordinal response, potential habitat distribution map, static modelling, Swiss Alps
Web of science
Création de la notice
24/01/2008 19:06
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:48
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