Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_B970CA4821B1
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.
Périodique
Annals of Oncology : Official Journal of the European Society For Medical Oncology / Esmo
Auteur(s)
Bridgewater J., Lopes A., Wasan H., Malka D., Jensen L., Okusaka T., Knox J., Wagner D., Cunningham D., Shannon J., Goldstein D., Moehler M., Bekaii-Saab T., McNamara M.G., Valle J.W.
ISSN
1569-8041 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0923-7534
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
27
Numéro
1
Pages
134-140
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Meta-Analysis ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease.
METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset.
RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)].
CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.
Mots-clé
Bile Duct Neoplasms/diagnosis, Bile Duct Neoplasms/mortality, Cholangiocarcinoma/diagnosis, Cholangiocarcinoma/mortality, Disease-Free Survival, Humans, Multivariate Analysis, Prognosis, Proportional Hazards Models, ROC Curve, Treatment Outcome
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
20/06/2014 17:29
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:27
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