Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_B5FD7DB9FCB9
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions
Périodique
Law, Probability and Risk
Auteur(s)
Biedermann A., Taroni F.
ISSN
1470-840X
ISSN-L
1470-8396
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
10
Numéro
4
Pages
277-301
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.
Mots-clé
evidential relevance , victim/scene to offender transfer , likelihood ratio , crime level propositions , Bayesian networks sensitivity analyses
Création de la notice
02/11/2011 15:20
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 16:24
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