Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
Détails
Télécharger: s41467-020-20011-8.pdf (2729.19 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_A39282743115
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
Périodique
Nature Communications
ISSN
2041-1723
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
15/12/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Numéro
1
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.
Mots-clé
Atmospheric science, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate change, Cryospheric science
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
29/08/2024 10:03
Dernière modification de la notice
22/11/2024 10:06