Impact of viral eradication on mortality related to hepatitis C: a modeling approach in France.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_A36D7FD4D09D
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Impact of viral eradication on mortality related to hepatitis C: a modeling approach in France.
Périodique
Journal of Hepatology
Auteur(s)
Deuffic-Burban S., Deltenre P., Louvet A., Canva V., Dharancy S., Hollebecque A., Boitard J., Henrion J., Yazdanpanah Y., Mathurin P.
ISSN
0168-8278 (Print)
ISSN-L
0168-8278
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2008
Volume
49
Numéro
2
Pages
175-183
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tPublication Status: ppublish
Résumé
BACKGROUND/AIMS: In France, two recent studies enabled modeling of the impact of viral eradication on HCV mortality.
METHODS: The French HCV population was simulated from infection to death using a computer-based model. We took into account the impact of alcohol, present screening and antiviral therapy to predict 2006--2025 HCV mortality and to assess the impact of viral eradication.
RESULTS: In 2006, the model estimated that among HCV-RNA+, 55% were F0-F1, 18% F2, 22% F3-F4 and 6% had liver complications. The mortality ratio was 11-fold higher in alcoholic patients 40-65 years old. Current therapy will save 14,400 (95% CI, 13,900-15,000) lives compared to absence of therapy. Sensitivity analyses did not change the main results. Contrary to guidelines, if patients F<2 were treated in the same proportions as those with F> or = 2,700 (95% CI, 700-750) lives would be saved. If screening were to reach 75% in 2010, 4 years earlier than model expectation, 950 (95% CI, 900-1000) lives would be saved. If a new molecule improving eradication for genotype 1/4 by 40% were to become available in 2010, 1500 (95% CI, 1400-1600) lives would be saved.
CONCLUSIONS: Current therapy is reducing HCV mortality. Therapeutic guidelines must take into account their impact on HCV mortality.
Mots-clé
Adult, Aged, Alcohol Drinking/mortality, Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use, Computer Simulation, Female, France/epidemiology, Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy, Hepatitis C, Chronic/mortality, Humans, Incidence, Male, Markov Chains, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Sensitivity and Specificity, Young Adult
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
06/12/2013 10:17
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:09
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