Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_9FDE80C593FF
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.
Périodique
International Journal of Cancer. Journal International du Cancer
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Levi F., La Vecchia C., Decarli A., Randriamiharisoa A.
ISSN
0020-7136 (Print)
ISSN-L
0020-7136
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
1987
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
40
Numéro
4
Pages
439-449
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Résumé
Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.
Mots-clé
Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Diagnosis-Related Groups, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasms/mortality, Sex Factors, Statistics as Topic
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
06/05/2013 16:46
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:06
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