Subtleties in Bayesian decision-theoretic analysis for forensic findings: Notes on recent discussion of the role of validation study data in rational decision making

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Biedermann_2024.pdf (1094.98 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_9BD7A1D33080
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Subtleties in Bayesian decision-theoretic analysis for forensic findings: Notes on recent discussion of the role of validation study data in rational decision making
Périodique
Forensic Science International: Synergy
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Biedermann Alex
ISSN
2589-871X
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
01/09/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
9
Pages
100548
Langue
anglais
Notes
The research reported in this article was supported by the Swiss Benevolent Society of New York.
Résumé
This technical note extends a recent discussion in this journal of the role of validation study data in rational decision making. One argument that has been made in this context, using elements of Bayesian decision theory, is that further aggregation of validation study data into error rates involves a loss of information that compromises rational inference and decision making and should therefore be discouraged. This technical note seeks to explain that this argument can be developed at different levels of detail, depending on the definition of the propositions of interest, the forensic findings to be evaluated (and hence the form of the likelihood ratio), and the characterization of the relative desirability of decision consequences. The analyses proposed here reveal the cascade of abstractions and assumptions into which discussions about the use of validation study results in forensic science have fallen. This reinforces the conclusion that further aggregation of validation study data into error rates is problematic. It also suggests that even if a definition of error rate(s) could be agreed upon and defensively quantified in a given application, we should rethink and possibly adjust our expectations about what exactly error rates can practically contribute to rational modes of reasoning and decision making in legal contexts.
Mots-clé
Bayesian decision theory, Error rates, Feature agnosticism, inconclusive, relevance, probability
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Université de Lausanne
Autre
Création de la notice
01/09/2024 1:31
Dernière modification de la notice
05/09/2024 9:10
Données d'usage