Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures

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Ressource 1Télécharger: Multivariate_Volatility.pdf (953.68 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Author's accepted manuscript
ID Serval
serval:BIB_895910E4556B
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures
Périodique
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Bauwens  L., Hafner  C.M., Pierret  D.
ISSN
0883-7252
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
08/2013
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
28
Numéro
5
Pages
743-761
Langue
anglais
Résumé
We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional correlation (mDCC) model to separate long-run from short-run components. We allow for smooth changes in the unconditional volatilities and correlations through a multiplicative component that we estimate nonparametrically. For the short-run dynamics, we use a GJR-GARCH model for the conditional variances and augmented DCC models for the conditional correlations. We also introduce exogenous variables to account for congestion and delivery date effects in short-term conditional variances. We find different correlation dynamics for long- and short-term contracts and the new model achieves higher forecasting performance compared \to a standard DCC model.
Mots-clé
Dynamic conditional correlation, Garch model, Generalized arch, Spot prices, Exchange
Web of science
Création de la notice
05/04/2016 18:55
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:48
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