Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_84A119CF3F61
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not
Périodique
Cognition
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Hoffrage U., Gigerenzer G., Krauss S., Martignon L.
ISSN
0010-0277
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2002
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
84
Numéro
3
Pages
343-352
Langue
anglais
Résumé
A good representation can be crucial for finding the solution to a problem. Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (Psychol. Rev. 102 (1995) 684; Psychol. Rev. 106 (1999) 425) have shown that representations in terms of natural frequencies, rather than conditional probabilities, facilitate the computation of a cause's probability (or frequency) given an effect – a problem that is usually referred to as Bayesian reasoning. They also have shown that normalized frequencies – which are not natural frequencies – do not lead to computational facilitation, and consequently, do not enhance people's performance. Here, we correct two misconceptions propagated in recent work (Cognition 77 (2000) 197; Cognition 78 (2001) 247; Psychol. Rev. 106 (1999) 62; Organ. Behav. Hum. Decision Process. 82 (2000) 217): normalized frequencies have been mistaken for natural frequencies and, as a consequence, “nested sets” and the “subset principle” have been proposed as new explanations. These new terms, however, are nothing more than vague labels for the basic properties of natural frequencies.
Mots-clé
Bayesian inference, Probability judgements, Representation of information, Natural frequencies
Web of science
Création de la notice
24/02/2009 14:34
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 14:44
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