Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_7DBAAC6DFFFC
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity
Périodique
Bioscience
Auteur(s)
Botkin D. B., Saxe H., Araujo M. B., Betts R., Bradshaw R. H. W., Cedhagen T., Chesson P., Dawson T. P., Etterson J. R., Faith D. P., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hansen A. S., Hilbert D. W., Loehle C., Margules C., New M., Sobel M. J., Stockwell D. R. B.
ISSN
0006-3568
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2007
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
57
Numéro
3
Pages
227-236
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.
Mots-clé
biodiversity, forecasting, global warming, modeling, Quaternary conundrum
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
24/01/2008 20:06
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:39
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