A Predictive Model of Weight Loss After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass up to 5 Years After Surgery: a Useful Tool to Select and Manage Candidates to Bariatric Surgery.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_743D364D6C8F
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
A Predictive Model of Weight Loss After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass up to 5 Years After Surgery: a Useful Tool to Select and Manage Candidates to Bariatric Surgery.
Périodique
Obesity surgery
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Seyssel K., Suter M., Pattou F., Caiazzo R., Verkindt H., Raverdy V., Jolivet M., Disse E., Robert M., Giusti V.
ISSN
1708-0428 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0960-8923
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
11/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
28
Numéro
11
Pages
3393-3399
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
Different factors, such as age, gender, preoperative weight but also the patient's motivation, are known to impact outcomes after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP). Weight loss prediction is helpful to define realistic expectations and maintain motivation during follow-up, but also to select good candidates for surgery and limit failures. Therefore, developing a realistic predictive tool appears interesting.
A Swiss cohort (n = 444), who underwent RYGBP, was used, with multiple linear regression models, to predict weight loss up to 60 months after surgery considering age, height, gender and weight at baseline. We then applied our model on two French cohorts and compared predicted weight to the one finally reached. Accuracy of our model was controlled using root mean square error (RMSE).
Mean weight loss was 43.6 ± 13.0 and 40.8 ± 15.4 kg at 12 and 60 months respectively. The model was reliable to predict weight loss (0.37 < R <sup>2</sup>  < 0.48) and RMSE between 5.0 and 12.2 kg. High preoperative weight and young age were positively correlated to weight loss, as well as male gender. Correlations between predicted weight and real weight were highly significant in both validation cohorts (R ≥ 0.7 and P < 0.01) and RMSE increased throughout follow-up between 6.2 and 15.4 kg.
Our statistical model to predict weight loss outcomes after RYGBP seems accurate. It could be a valuable tool to define realistic weight loss expectations and to improve patient selection and outcomes during follow-up. Further research is needed to demonstrate the interest of this model in improving patients' motivation and results and limit the failures.
Mots-clé
Follow-Up Studies, Gastric Bypass/statistics & numerical data, Humans, Obesity, Morbid/epidemiology, Obesity, Morbid/surgery, Switzerland, Treatment Outcome, Weight Loss/physiology, Bariatric surgery, Gastric bypass, Morbid obesity, Predictive model, RYGBP, Weight loss
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
16/07/2018 17:51
Dernière modification de la notice
14/10/2019 6:09
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