Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: BIB_71B667A4891A.P001.pdf (1841.61 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
ID Serval
serval:BIB_71B667A4891A
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers
Périodique
Frontiers in Psychology
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Hoffrage U., Hafenbrädl S., Bouquet C.
ISSN
1664-1078
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
6
Numéro
642
Pages
1-11
Langue
anglais
Résumé
In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes' rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes' rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes' rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula.
Mots-clé
Bayesian inference, Updating beliefs, Natural frequency, Representation format, Management, Executives, Applied business statistics
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
01/04/2016 16:22
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:30
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