Substituting risk for uncertainty. Where are the limits and how to face them?

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Cahier IEP n°73 (Maechler et al 2019)(2).pdf (373.87 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_6F12997045F6
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Substituting risk for uncertainty. Where are the limits and how to face them?
Périodique
Les Cahiers de l’IEP / IEP Working Papers Series
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Maechler Sylvain (co-premier), Graz Jean-Christophe (co-dernier), Furrer Etienne, Lunghi Emma Sofia, Monthoux Marc, Yousefzai Céline
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
01/10/2019
Numéro
73
Pages
1-26
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Dealing with uncertainty has become a matter of great concern of policy makers and scientific research in a world facing global, epochal and complex changes. Such call for a comprehensive understanding of the implications of uncertainties lead to the broader question of: can we anticipate the future, and if so, how? This conceptual paper explores the ability to anticipate the future by converting undefined uncertainties into manageable risks. To do so, we distinguish between epistemic and ontological level of analysis, to argue that there are both epistemic and ontological limits in the substitu-tion of risk for uncertainty. We build in particular on the distinction drawn by Frank H. Knight (1921) between risk and true uncertainty to put forward such limits. Yet, in contrast to Knight who relies on expert judgment to overcome the epistemic limits, we suggest that the future cannot be fully anticipated through the production of new knowledge. Notwithstanding, we contend that we are better armed to face an unknown future with a co-production of knowledge by a larger range of actors. We illustrate our argument with the uncertainties arising from the current global ecological crisis.
Mots-clé
ecological crisis, Frank H. Knight, pluralisation of knowledge, risk, uncertainty
Création de la notice
19/01/2020 6:42
Dernière modification de la notice
21/11/2022 8:21
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