Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.
Détails
ID Serval
serval:BIB_5F0449D7EB70
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.
Périodique
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN
1091-6490 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0027-8424
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2009
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
106 Suppl 2
Numéro
Suppl. 2
Pages
19723-19728
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.
Mots-clé
Biodiversity, Climate Change, Models, Biological, Species Specificity, Switzerland, Trees/physiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
26/10/2009 19:17
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 14:16