Risk and Rationality: The Relative Importance of Probability Weighting and Choice Set Dependence

Détails

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Etat: Public
Version: de l'auteur⸱e
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_57DAA6378E03
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Risk and Rationality: The Relative Importance of Probability Weighting and Choice Set Dependence
Périodique
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Bruhin Adrian, Manai Maha, Santos-Pinto Luis
ISSN
0895-5646 (print)
1573-0476 (electronic)
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
15/10/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
65
Numéro
2
Pages
139-184
Langue
anglais
Résumé

The literature suggests that probability weighting and choice set dependence in- fluence risky choices. However, their relative importance remains an open question. We present a joint test that uses binary choices between lotteries provoking Common Consequence and Common Ratio Allais Paradoxes and manipulates their joint payoff distribution. We show non-parametrically that probability weighting and choice set dependence both play a role at describing aggregate choices. To parsimoniously account for heterogeneity, we also estimate a structural model using a finite mixture approach. The model uncovers substantial heterogeneity and classifies subjects into three types: 38% Prospect Theory types whose choices are predominantly driven by probability weighting, 34% Salience Theory types whose choices are predominantly driven by choice set dependence, and 28% Expected Utility Theory types. The model predicts type-specific differences in the frequency of preference reversals out-of-sample, i.e., in choices with a different context than the ones used for estimating the model. Moreover, the out-of-sample predictions indicate that the choice context shapes the influence of choice set dependence.
Mots-clé
Choice under Risk, Choice Set Dependence, Probability Weighting, Salience Theory, Prospect Theory, Preference Reversals
Création de la notice
09/11/2018 14:57
Dernière modification de la notice
25/02/2023 7:46
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