The value of snow as a resource has considerably increased in Swiss
mountain regions, in particular in the context of winter tourism. In the
perspective of a warming climate, it is thus important to quantify the
potential chances in snow amount and duration that could have large
repercussions on the economy of ski resorts. Because of the fine spatial
variability of snow, the use of a Surface Energy Balance Model (SEBM) is
adequate to simulate local snow cover evolution. A perturbation method
has been developed to generate plausible future meteorological input
data required for SEBM Simulations in order to assess the changes in
snow cover patterns. Current and future snow depths have also been
simulated within the ski areas themselves. The results show a large
decrease of the snow depths and duration, even at high elevation in a
warmer climate and emphasize the sensitivity of snow to topographical
characteristics of the resorts. The most vulnerable areas would be the
Western regions of Switzerland or the Eastern Prealps whereas the
Central Alps or Valais would be less affected. The study highlights the
fact that not only the altitude of a domain but also its exposure,
localization inland and slope gradients need to be taken into account
when evaluating current and future snow depths. This method enables a
precise assessment of the snow pattern over a small area. Copyright (c)
2008 Royal Meteorological Society