This paper derives panel estimates of the long-run relationship between trade and employment at the industry level for Bolivia using Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator. We combine these estimates with a partial-equilibrium simulation of the trade shock that would follow from the elimination of nonreciprocal preferences on the US market under the ATPDEA. We find that the reduction in market access is substantial (Bolivian exports to the US contract on average by 20%) but because the US represents only 12.7% of Bolivia’s exports, the numbers remain small ($32 million
or 2.5% of Bolivia’s total exports). The long-run impact on domestic employment is negligible (less than 1%). The highest effect is in the textile and apparel sector where it is still less than 2% of initial employment. The net effect of a reciprocal FTA is similarly limited both on the export and import sides, as are the trade-diversion effects on Andean markets if Andean countries sign with the US.