To assess the validity of seven type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores in predicting the 10-year incidence of T2DM in a Swiss population-based study.
The prospective study included 5131 participants (55% women, age range 35 to 75 years) living in Lausanne, Switzerland. The baseline survey was conducted between 2003 and 2006, and the average follow-up was 10.9 years. Five clinically-based scores (the Balkau, Kahn clinical, Griffin, Swiss Diabetes Association [SDAS], and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score [FINDRISC]) and two clinically and biologically based scores (the Kahn CB and Wilson) were tested.
405 (7.9%) participants developed T2DM. The overall prevalence of participants at high risk ranged from 13.7% for the Griffin score to 43.3% for the Balkau score. The prevalence of participants at high risk among those who developed T2DM ranged from 34.6% for the Griffin score to 82.0% for the Kahn CB score. The Kahn CB score had the highest area under the ROC (value and 95% confidence interval: 0.866 [0.849-0.883]), followed by the FINDRISC (0.818 [0.798-0.838]), while the Griffin score had the lowest (0.740 [0.718-0.762]). Sensitivities and specificities were above 70%, except for the Griffin and the Kahn C scores (for sensitivity) and the Balkau score (for specificity). The numbers needed to screen ranged from 15.5 for the Kahn CB score to 36.7 for the Griffin score.
The Kahn CB and the FINDRISC scores performed the best out of all the scores. The FINDRISC score could be used in an epidemiological setting, while the need for blood sampling for the Kahn CB score restricts its use to a more clinical setting.