Old-Age Care Prevalence in Switzerland: Drivers and Future Development

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Version: Author's accepted manuscript
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ID Serval
serval:BIB_353642822986
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Old-Age Care Prevalence in Switzerland: Drivers and Future Development
Périodique
European Actuarial Journal
Auteur(s)
Fuino M., Wagner J.
ISSN
2190-9733
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
29/10/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
8
Numéro
2
Pages
321-362
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Long-term care (LTC) delivered to elderly persons in need of assistance in activities of daily living is a topic of increasing importance. The financing of LTC, the needs for specialized infrastructure and the limited number of caregivers will pose a systemic threat in many developed countries. In this paper, we analyze the factors influencing the old-age care prevalence rates in Switzerland through a log-linear regression model. Based on a cross-sectional dataset covering the LTC needs from 1995 to 2014, we statistically support the effect of key drivers such as the age, the gender and the region of residence. We distinguish the prevalence by the mild, moderate and severe frailty levels and by care received either at home or in an institution. Our regression results evidence that prevalence rates exponentially increase with the age yielding significantly higher values for women. These effects are emphasized for moderate and severe dependence and for institutional care. Finally, we forecast the number of dependent persons until 2045. Our projections reveal an important increase in the future numbers. While we observe that the dependent population more than doubles over the 30-year horizon, we report significant cantonal differences. Our results are relevant to governments, practitioners and academics alike and help to better understand the factors affecting the demand of LTC and predicting future needs.
Mots-clé
long-term care, log-linear regression, prevalence rates, forecast
Création de la notice
29/08/2018 23:12
Dernière modification de la notice
21/08/2019 7:08
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