Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
Détails
Télécharger: Reviews of Geophysics - 2020 - Merz - Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards.pdf (4111.38 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_30D298CE99AD
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
Périodique
Reviews of Geophysics
ISSN
8755-1209
1944-9208
1944-9208
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
12/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
58
Numéro
4
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.
Mots-clé
impact forecasting, natural hazards, early warning
Web of science
Site de l'éditeur
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / 170523
Création de la notice
08/03/2022 14:13
Dernière modification de la notice
11/07/2024 9:32