Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_2A552A8AAB3C
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests
Périodique
Ecological Modelling
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Rickebusch S., Gellrich M., Lischke H., Guisan A., Zimmermann N. E.
ISSN
0304-3800
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2007
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
209
Numéro
2-4
Pages
157-168
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland.
Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time.
The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth.
TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.
Mots-clé
agricultural land-abandonment, gap dynamics, logistic regression, reforestation, TreeMig, TreeMig-LAb, Switzerland
Web of science
Création de la notice
24/01/2008 20:06
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 14:10
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