Modelling the Burden of Long-Term Care for Institutionalised Elderly Based on Care Duration and Intensity

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Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_265A903F1538
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Modelling the Burden of Long-Term Care for Institutionalised Elderly Based on Care Duration and Intensity
Périodique
Annals of Actuarial Science
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Bladt M., Fuino M., Shemendyuk A., Wagner J.
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2023
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
17
Numéro
1
Pages
83-117
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The financing of long-term care and the planning of care capacity are of increasing interest due to demographic changes and the ageing population in many countries. Since many care-intensive conditions begin to manifest at higher ages, a better understanding and assessment of the expected costs, required infrastructure, and number of qualified personnel are essential. To evaluate the overall burden of institutional care, we derive a model based on the duration of stay in dependence and the intensity of help provided to elderly individuals. This article aims to model both aspects using novel longitudinal data from nursing homes in the canton of Geneva in Switzerland. Our data contain comprehensive health and care information, including medical diagnoses, levels of dependence, and physical and psychological impairments on 21 758 individuals. We build an accelerated failure time model to study the influence of selected factors on the duration of care and a beta regression model to describe the intensity of care. We show that apart from age and gender, the duration of stay before death is mainly affected by the underlying diseases and the number of different diagnoses. Simultaneously, care intensity is driven by the individual level of dependence and specific limitations. Using both evaluations, we approximate the overall care severity for individual profiles. Our study sheds light on the relevant medical, physical and psychological health indicators that need to be accounted for, not only by care providers but also by policy-makers and insurers.
Mots-clé
long-term care, institutional care, accelerated failure time, beta regression, empirical data
Open Access
Oui
Financement(s)
Fonds national suisse / Projets / 100018_169662
Création de la notice
13/07/2022 8:43
Dernière modification de la notice
25/03/2023 8:08
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