When are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run?

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Etat: Public
Version: Author's accepted manuscript
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_21A3D761DFAC
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
When are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run?
Périodique
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Jondeau Eric, Zhang Qunzi, Zhu Xiaoneng
ISSN
0022-1090
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2021
Volume
56
Numéro
4
Pages
1228 - 1258
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Pastor and Stambaugh (2012) find that from a forward-looking perspective, stocks are more volatile in the long run than they are in the short run. We demonstrate that, when the nonnegative equity premium (NEP) condition is imposed on predictive regressions, stocks are in fact less volatile in the long run, even after taking estimation risk and uncertainties into account. The reason is that the NEP provides an additional parameter identification condition and prior information for future returns. Combined with the mean reversion of stock returns, this condition substantially reduces uncertainty on future returns and leads to lower long-run predictive variance.
Création de la notice
26/05/2020 12:07
Dernière modification de la notice
14/05/2022 6:34
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