When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?
Détails
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Etat: Public
Version: de l'auteur⸱e
Etat: Public
Version: de l'auteur⸱e
ID Serval
serval:BIB_1DAB9182A33F
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?
Périodique
World Economy
ISSN
1467-9701 (Online)
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
01/2010
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
33
Numéro
1
Pages
107-128
Langue
anglais
Résumé
We extend the literature on sharp reductions in current account deficits by taking into account not only short-term determinants, but also the deviation of net foreign assets from their long-run equilibrium level. First, we analyse the long-term relationship between net foreign assets and a set of explanatory variables and construct a measure of imbalances. Next, we model current account reversals by incorporating this new measure and compare the predictive power of this model with the baseline specification that does not account for long-term imbalances. Our new model has a superior performance in and out-of-sample, especially when we control for the sign of imbalances. We also find that low net foreign assets do not necessarily lead to sharp reductions in current account deficits; it is rather the situation when they are below their equilibrium level that triggers reversals. Finally, we document that our new measure of net foreign asset imbalances is important only for developing countries, whereas standard models perform well for industrial economies.
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
15/06/2010 9:24
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 12:54