Modeling Temperature‐Dependent Sub‐Daily Extreme Rainfall With a Gridded Weather Generator

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Moraga 2024.pdf (2410.00 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_13B063238916
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Modeling Temperature‐Dependent Sub‐Daily Extreme Rainfall With a Gridded Weather Generator
Périodique
Earth and Space Science
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Moraga Jorge Sebastián, Peleg Nadav, Burlando Paolo
ISSN
2333-5084
2333-5084
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Numéro
6
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Temperature increases are associated with an intensification of heavy sub-daily extreme rainfall by approximately 7% per °C, in accordance with the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. As a result of this intensification, there are concerns regarding the increased frequency and magnitude of floods in small to medium-sized catchments. The high-resolution two-dimensional weather generator (WG), AWE-GEN-2d, offers an ideal tool to simulate the climate variables required to assess the catchment-scale hydrological response at high resolution. However, it lacked an explicit representation of the relationship between temperature and precipitation that can mimic the CC relationship. Therefore, we introduce a newly revised version of the model, named AWE-GEN-2d-CC, designed to mirror the observed CC scaling by conditioning the simulation of precipitation properties (intensity and area) on temperature. We demonstrate the model's efficacy in representing future extreme rainfall by simulating their potential impact on the hydrological response of a mountainous catchment in the Swiss Alps. Based on observations and future climate model projections, AWE-GEN-2d-CC was used to generate large ensembles of present and end-of-century climate data at hourly and 2-km resolutions, used subsequently as input to Topkapi-ETH, a physically-based, distributed hydrological model. The new version of the WG successfully mimics the CC scaling of heavy rainfall, leading to an intensification of short-duration heavy rainfall in future climates, in contrast with the results obtained using the original model. This allows for a more realistic assessment of future rainfall impact on hydrological response, which, in the demonstration application, shows a modulated effect even for short durations.
Mots-clé
extreme precipitation, stochastic weather generator, Clausius-Clapeyron relation, climate change impacts, hourly gridded rainfall
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
14/06/2024 14:39
Dernière modification de la notice
02/07/2024 7:35
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