Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Geophysical Research Letters - 2021 - Gonz lez%E2%80%90Alem n - Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of.pdf (6391.16 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_0DBE6F61675C
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
Périodique
Geophysical Research Letters
Auteur⸱e⸱s
González-Alemán Juan J., Grams Christian M., Ayarzagüena Blanca, Zurita-Gotor Pablo, Domeisen Daniela I. V., Gómara Iñigo, Rodríguez-Fonseca Belén, Vitart Frédéric
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
16/01/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
49
Numéro
1
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can have a strong impact on the troposphere. Their fingerprint is often associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and extreme weather with high societal impact. However, the mechanisms behind this downward impact are not well understood. We investigate this surface impact through its associated predictability limits, by studying the 2018 SSW event. We search for predictability barriers that occurred after the onset of the SSW and before its surface impact. It is found that dynamical tropospheric events consisting of two cyclogenesis events were the main reasons for these predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work corroborates that individual synoptic events might constitute predictability barriers during the downward impact of SSW events, and thereby sheds light on stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
Mots-clé
troposphere-stratosphere coupling, predictability, extratropical cyclones
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
08/03/2022 11:37
Dernière modification de la notice
10/07/2024 7:05
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