BACKGROUND: Vascular access (VA) stenosis with subsequent thrombosis remains one of the major causes of morbidity and hospitalization in haemodialysis patients. The present cross-sectional study was planned in order to analyze the usefulness of brachial artery duplex ultrasound for detection and prediction of vascular access stenoses. METHODS: Color duplex ultrasound (Apogee Cx200, sectorial probe 7.5 MHz) was used to obtain the anatomical pattern of the VA and flow velocity waveforms of the brachial artery in 77 non-selected VA (47 Ciminio-Brescia fistulae and 30 PTFE grafts). In each VA, the resistance index (RI), the mean blood flow rate (Q) and the blood flow ratio index (QI) (QI = VA flow rate/contralateral flow rate) were calculated at the level of the brachial artery. The sensitivity and specificity of these brachial Doppler parameters were calculated for the detection of VA stenosis. In normal VA, positive (PPV) and negative predictive (NPV) values were calculated for the development of clinical stenotic complications 3 months post ultrasound examination. RESULTS: Thirteen of the 77 VA (17%) were identified as stenosed by duplex ultrasound and confirmed by fistulography and/or during surgical exploration. The best screening tests for VA stenosis detection were a QI threshold < 4.0 with a sensitivity and specificity of 69 and 69% and an RI > 0.55 with a sensitivity and specificity of 62 and 66%, respectively. In the VA considered as normal by ultrasound, the prediction of subsequent stenosis within three months post-ultrasound examination gave a PPV of only 18% and 19% for RI and QI, respectively. NPV for RI and QI were 90% and 88%. CONCLUSIONS: While Doppler ultrasound is a useful non-invasive test for the detection of prevalent VA stenosis, our results do not confirm that abnormal brachial Doppler flow parameters can predict short term development of VA stenosis.