Digitization, Prediction and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Book Publishing Deals

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: SSRN-id3110105.pdf (1166.05 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Author's accepted manuscript
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_053DAEE66D05
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Digitization, Prediction and Market Efficiency: Evidence from Book Publishing Deals
Périodique
Management Science
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Peukert Christian, Reimers Imke
ISSN
0025-1909 (print)
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
09/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
68
Numéro
9
Pages
6355-7064
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Digitization has given creators direct access to consumers as well as a plethora of new data for suppliers of new products to draw on. We study how this affects market efficiency in the context of book publishing. Using data on about 50,000 license deals over more than ten years, we identify the effects of digitization from quasi-experimental variation across book types. Consistent with digitization generating additional information for predicting product appeal, we show that the size of license payments more accurately reflects a product’s ex-post success, and more so for publishers that invest more in data analytics. These effects cannot be fully explained by changes in bargaining power or in demand. We estimate that efficiency gains are worth between 10% and 18% of publishers’ total investments in book deals. Thus, digitization can have large impacts on the allocation of resources across products of varying qualities in markets in which product appeal has traditionally been difficult to predict ex-ante.
Création de la notice
13/09/2021 18:33
Dernière modification de la notice
03/02/2023 7:08
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