Validation of a model to predict adverse outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_F6C90198B1B4
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Validation of a model to predict adverse outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.
Journal
European heart journal
Author(s)
Aujesky D., Roy P.M., Le Manach C.P., Verschuren F., Meyer G., Obrosky D.S., Stone R.A., Cornuz J., Fine M.J.
ISSN
0195-668X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2006
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
27
Number
4
Pages
476-81
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Comparative Study ; Journal Article ; Multicenter Study ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't ; Validation Studies - Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
AIMS: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding. CONCLUSION: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.
Keywords
Aged, Comorbidity, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Biological, Prognosis, Pulmonary Embolism, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Sensitivity and Specificity
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
25/01/2008 14:42
Last modification date
25/09/2019 7:11
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