Flood occurrence change-point analysis in the paleoflood record from Lake Mondsee (NE Alps)

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_F36B5ABDA9AD
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Flood occurrence change-point analysis in the paleoflood record from Lake Mondsee (NE Alps)
Journal
Global and Planetary Change
Author(s)
Albrecher H., Bladt M., Kortschak  D., Prettenthaler F., Swierczynski T.
ISSN
0921-8181
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
178
Pages
65-76
Language
english
Abstract
Knowledge about changes of flood occurrence patterns is important for risk estimation of the future. Robust and well-
calibrated paleoflood records, derived e.g. from lake sediments, are excellent natural archives to investigate flood
variability of the past and to use the data for further modelling. In this paper, we analyse a 7100 year summer flood
record recovered from Lake Mondsee (NE Alps), using a statistical approach. We identify a point process of renewal
type, with a significant change-point of the occurrence pattern around 350 AD, switching from the overlay of two
mechanisms of event recurrences of 5 and 50 years before to 2 and 17 years after this change-point. This changepoint
approach enables a comparison to other flood records, and possibly to relate event frequencies to climatic
conditions. We also highlight how lower temporal resolution of flood records can hamper the analysis of relations to
climatic signals. Hence high-resolution records with robust chronologies and flood information (e.g. seasonality and
event characteristics) are essential to improve the understanding of the interplay between climatic signals and flood
occurrences, which is an important ingredient for proper risk estimation and risk management.
Open Access
Yes
Create date
10/04/2019 11:33
Last modification date
21/08/2019 6:17
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