Bayesian networks and dissonant items of evidence: A case study

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License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_E4C5F2B13A1F
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Bayesian networks and dissonant items of evidence: A case study
Journal
Forensic Science International: Genetics
Author(s)
De March Ilaria, Taroni Franco
ISSN
1872-4973
Publication state
Published
Issued date
10/10/2019
Volume
44
Language
english
Abstract
The assessment of different items of evidence is a challenging process in forensic science, particularly when the relevant elements support different inferential directions. In this study, a model is developed to assess the joint probative value of three different analyses related to some biological material retrieved on an object of interest in a criminal case. The study shows the ability of probabilistic graphical models, say Bayesian networks, to deal with complex situations, those that one expects to face in real cases. The results obtained by the model show the importance of a conflict measure as an indication of inconsistencies in the model itself. A contamination event alleged by the defense is also introduced in the model to explain and solve the conflict. The study aims to give an insight in the application of a probabilistic model to real criminal cases.
Keywords
DNA evidence, Activity level interpretation, Bayesian networks, Conflict measure
Pubmed
Create date
18/11/2019 14:49
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19/11/2019 7:09
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