Sub-seasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models

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Version: Author's accepted manuscript
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_E00CAD4A5128
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Sub-seasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models
Journal
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems
Author(s)
Weirich Benet Elizabeth, Pyrina Maria, Jiménez-Esteve Bernat, Fraenkel Ernest, Cohen Judah, Domeisen Daniela I.V.
ISSN
2769-7525
Publication state
Published
Issued date
09/01/2023
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
2
Pages
1-52
Language
english
Abstract
Heatwaves are extreme near-surface temperature events that can have substantial impacts on ecosystems and society. Early Warning Systems help to reduce these impacts by helping communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events. However, state-of-the-art prediction systems can often not make accurate forecasts of heatwaves more than two weeks in advance, which are required for advance warnings. We therefore investigate the potential of statistical and machine learning methods to understand and predict central European summer heatwaves on timescales of several weeks. As a first step, we identify the most important regional atmospheric and surface predictors based on previous studies and supported by a correlation analysis: 2-m air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential, precipitation, and soil moisture in central Europe, as well as Mediterranean and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the North Atlantic jet stream. Based on these predictors, we apply machine learning methods to forecast two targets: summer temperature anomalies and the probability of heatwaves for 1–6 weeks lead time at weekly resolution. For each of these two target variables, we use both a linear and a random forest model. The performance of these statistical models decays with lead time, as expected, but outperforms persistence and climatology at all lead times. For lead times longer than two weeks, our machine learning models compete with the ensemble mean of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ hindcast system. We thus show that machine learning can help improve sub-seasonal forecasts of summer temperature anomalies and heatwaves.
Keywords
Extreme events, Forecasting, Heat wave, Machine learning, Subseasonal variability, Teleconnections
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_198896
European Research Council (ERC) / 847456
Other / AGS-1657748, PLR-1901352, and ARCSS-2115068
Create date
19/01/2023 17:40
Last modification date
10/07/2024 6:05
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