Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_DDB42E0486E0
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government
Journal
Review of Economics and Statistics
Author(s)
Herz Holger, Kistler Deborah, Zehnder Christian, Zihlmann Christian
ISSN
0034-6535
1530-9142
Publication state
Published
Issued date
09/02/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Pages
1-30
Language
english
Abstract
We empirically assess whether hindsight bias affects citizens' evaluation of their political actors. Using an incentivized elicitation technique, we demonstrate that people systematically misremember their past policy preferences regarding how to best fight the Covid-19 pandemic. At the peak of the first wave in the United States, the average respondent mistakenly believes they supported significantly stricter restrictions at the onset of the first wave than they actually did. Exogenous variation in the extent of hindsight bias, induced through a randomized survey experiment, indicates that hindsight bias has a negative causal impact on the change in trust in government.
Keywords
Hindsight bias, Trust in Government, Evaluation distortion, Biased Beliefs
Create date
09/02/2024 12:27
Last modification date
24/09/2024 6:19
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