Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_DCE000AF81CE
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence
Journal
Global Change Biology
Author(s)
Randin C.F., Engler R., Normand S., Zappa M., Zimmermann N.E., Pearman P.B., Vittoz P., Thuiller W., Guisan A.
ISSN
1354-1013
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2009
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
15
Number
6
Pages
1557-1569
Language
english
Abstract
Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.
Keywords
climate change, Europe, mountain region, species distribution model, Swiss Alps
Web of science
Create date
14/11/2008 9:31
Last modification date
20/08/2019 17:01
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