Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_B9D9E6A0799B
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.
Journal
Scientific reports
Author(s)
Patiño J., Mateo R.G., Zanatta F., Marquet A., Aranda S.C., Borges P.A., Dirkse G., Gabriel R., Gonzalez-Mancebo J.M., Guisan A., Muñoz J., Sim-Sim M., Vanderpoorten A.
ISSN
2045-2322 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2045-2322
Publication state
Published
Issued date
05/07/2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
6
Pages
29156
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.
Keywords
Bryophyta/physiology, Climate Change, Europe, Islands, Oceans and Seas, Species Specificity, Temperature
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
15/06/2016 21:16
Last modification date
30/04/2021 6:14
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