Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data.
Details
Download: 39168632.pdf (1140.12 [Ko])
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_B76C7E882838
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from repeated pooled testing: application to Swiss routine data.
Journal
Epidemiology and infection
ISSN
1469-4409 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0950-2688
Publication state
Published
Issued date
22/08/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
152
Pages
e100
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: epublish
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 through reported positive RT-PCR tests is biased due to non-random testing. Prevalence estimation in population-based samples corrects for this bias. Within this context, the pooled testing design offers many advantages, but several challenges remain with regards to the analysis of such data. We developed a Bayesian model aimed at estimating the prevalence of infection from repeated pooled testing data while (i) correcting for test sensitivity; (ii) propagating the uncertainty in test sensitivity; and (iii) including correlation over time and space. We validated the model in simulated scenarios, showing that the model is reliable when the sample size is at least 500, the pool size below 20, and the true prevalence below 5%. We applied the model to 1.49 million pooled tests collected in Switzerland in 2021-2022 in schools, care centres, and workplaces. We identified similar dynamics in all three settings, with prevalence peaking at 4-5% during winter 2022. We also identified differences across regions. Prevalence estimates in schools were correlated with reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths (coefficient 0.84 to 0.90). We conclude that in many practical situations, the pooled test design is a reliable and affordable alternative for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.
Keywords
COVID-19/epidemiology, COVID-19/diagnosis, Humans, Switzerland/epidemiology, Prevalence, Bayes Theorem, SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification, COVID-19 Testing/methods, SARS-CoV-2, epidemics, screening programme, surveillance
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
26/08/2024 10:56
Last modification date
05/09/2024 8:59