Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

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State: Public
Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_B0F65EBA824F
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.
Journal
Swiss Medical Weekly
Author(s)
Joliat G.R., Hahnloser D., Demartines N., Schäfer M.
ISSN
1424-3997 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0036-7672
Publication state
Published
Issued date
09/2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
145
Number
145
Pages
w14188
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland.
METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates.
RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer.
CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.
Keywords
Aged, Cost of Illness, Female, Forecasting, Gastrointestinal Neoplasms/epidemiology, Gastrointestinal Neoplasms/mortality, Humans, Incidence, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality/trends, Switzerland/epidemiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
02/02/2016 16:19
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:19
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