Spatial predictions at the community level: from current approaches to future frameworks

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_A53FB4D90F6E
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Spatial predictions at the community level: from current approaches to future frameworks
Journal
Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society
Author(s)
D'Amen M., Rahbek C., Zimmermann N.E., Guisan A.
ISSN
1469-185X (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0006-3231
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
92
Pages
169-187
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
A fundamental goal of ecological research is to understand and model how processes generate patterns so that if conditions change, changes in the patterns can be predicted. Different approaches have been proposed for modelling species assemblage, but their use to predict spatial patterns of species richness and other community attributes over a range of spatial and temporal scales remains challenging. Different methods emphasize different processes of structuring communities and different goals. In this review, we focus on models that were developed for generating spatially explicit predictions of communities, with a particular focus on species richness, composition, relative abundance and related attributes. We first briefly describe the concepts and theories that span the different drivers of species assembly. A combination of abiotic processes and biotic mechanisms are thought to influence the community assembly process. In this review, we describe four categories of drivers: (i) historical and evolutionary, (ii) environmental, (iii) biotic, and (iv) stochastic. We discuss the different modelling approaches proposed or applied at the community level and examine them from different standpoints, i.e. the theoretical bases, the drivers included, the source data, and the expected outputs, with special emphasis on conservation needs under climate change. We also highlight the most promising novelties, possible shortcomings, and potential extensions of existing methods. Finally, we present new approaches to model and predict species assemblages by reviewing promising 'integrative frameworks' and views that seek to incorporate all drivers of community assembly into a unique modelling workflow. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these new solutions and how they may hasten progress in community-level modelling.

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Create date
01/08/2015 16:46
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:10
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