How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere

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Version: Final published version
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Serval ID
serval:BIB_A2F70AFB2A6E
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
Journal
Journal of Climate
Author(s)
Domeisen Daniela I. V., Badin Gualtiero, Koszalka Inga M.
ISSN
0894-8755
1520-0442
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/02/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
31
Number
3
Pages
997-1014
Language
english
Abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.
Keywords
Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Forecasting, Climate variability
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
08/03/2022 14:13
Last modification date
14/11/2024 13:47
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