The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere

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Version: Final published version
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Serval ID
serval:BIB_99B88CF488D7
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Author(s)
Domeisen Daniela I.V., Butler Amy H., Charlton-Perez Andrew J., Blanca Ayarzagüena, Baldwin Mark P., Dunn-Sigouin Etienne, Furtado Jason C., Garfinkel Chaim I., Peter Hitchcock, Karpechko Alexey Yu., Hera Kim, Jeff Knight, Lang Andrea L., Lim Eun-Pa, Andrew Marshall, Greg Roff, Chen Schwartz, Simpson Isla R., Son Seok-Woo, Masakazu Taguchi
Publication state
Published
Issued date
27/01/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
125
Pages
e2019JD030920
Language
english
Abstract
The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.
Keywords
stratosphere, sub-seasonal predictability, S2S database, sudden stratospheric warming
Create date
08/03/2022 14:12
Last modification date
14/11/2024 13:42
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