Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_98FA5BCD0304
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates
Journal
mea Discussion paper
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2004
Number
59
Pages
1-19
Language
english
Notes
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-8922 Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA)
Abstract
This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.
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Create date
09/11/2009 14:50
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:00