The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_8B2B54779574
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates
Journal
Journal of International Money and Finance
ISSN
0261-5606
Publication state
Published
Issued date
1999
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
18
Number
5
Pages
725-750
Language
english
Abstract
This paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates. Three tests are examined: the first is based on forward rates and the other two are based on the interest rates spread. First, we show that the ?sign puzzle' highlighted by Campbell and Shiller (Campbell, J.Y., Shiller, R.J., 1991. Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. Review of Economic Studies 58, 495?514) for US data does not arise in the cases of French and UK short-term rates. Second, we propose tests for the expectations hypothesis based on error-correction models. With these tests the sign puzzle disappears, but the ?country puzzle' remains.
Keywords
Term structure of interest rates, Expectations hypothesis, Error-correction model
Web of science
Publisher's website
Create date
19/11/2007 10:38
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:49