Client change talk (CT) during motivational interviewing (MI) has been described as a predictor of change in alcohol use. We examined the predictive validity of different strength levels of CT within a brief MI session for 174 young men from the general population screened as hazardous drinkers. CT was measured using the MI Skill Code (MISC 2.1) and categorized with positive (toward change) and negative (against change) valence and 3 strength levels (1=low, 2=medium, 3=high). Analyses included linear regression models predicting drinking at 3-month follow-up, while controlling for baseline drinking. Frequency of overall negative CT (i.e., sum of -1, -2, -3) significantly predicted poorer drinking outcomes. In a multivariate model entering frequency of CT utterances at each level of strength (i.e. +1, +2, +3, -1, -2, -3), the directionality of negative strength ratings was consistently in the expected direction, but only CT-2 was statistically significant. In contrast, overall CT positive (i.e., sum of +1, +2, +3) was not a significant predictor of less alcohol use, but the multivariate model showed that the presence of CT+3 significantly predicted less drinking at 3-month follow-up. Averaged strength summary score (i.e. on the scale from -3 to +3) was a significant predictor of better outcome, while percent positive CT was not. Moderation analyses showed that young men with lower baseline readiness to change or lower alcohol problem severity had higher follow-up drinking when they expressed more CT+1 or CT+2, while the opposite pattern was observed with those reporting higher baseline readiness to change or higher alcohol problem severity. Mixed findings for varying levels of positive CT strength might explain previous studies showing poor predictive validity of positive client language in MI. Together with other studies in similar settings, these findings suggest the importance of advanced MI techniques to shape client language to soften negative change talk (also known as sustain talk) and elicit positive CT verbalized with high intensity.