Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_789374A3BBE7
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing
Journal
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Author(s)
Bacchetta P., van Wincoop E.
ISSN
0022-2879
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
40
Number
5
Pages
837-866
Language
english
Abstract
We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price in the context of a dynamic noisy rational expectations model. We show that the wedge reduces asset price volatility and disconnects the price from the present value of future payoffs. The impact of the higher order wedge on the equilibrium price can be quantitatively large.
Keywords
Higher order beliefs, Beauty contest, Asset pricing
Web of science
Create date
15/05/2008 10:50
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:35
Usage data