A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_732741B54B09
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.
Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Author(s)
Normand S., Randin C., Ohlemüller R., Bay C., Høye T.T., Kjær E.D., Körner C., Lischke H., Maiorano L., Paulsen J., Pearman P.B., Psomas A., Treier U.A., Zimmermann N.E., Svenning J.C.
ISSN
1471-2970 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0962-8436
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2013
Volume
368
Number
1624
Pages
20120479
Language
english
Abstract
Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.
Keywords
Arctic Regions, Climate Change, Demography, Ecosystem, Greenland, Introduced Species, Models, Biological, Species Specificity, Trees/classification, Trees/physiology
Pubmed
Web of science
Create date
06/05/2015 10:35
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:31
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